Lovelock and Gaia

Metal Vendetta · Post by **Metal Vendetta** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:01 pm

So I've been reading in today's Independent that the man who first came up with the concept of "Gaia" - the planet's natural systems that protect life - has warned that it's probably now too late to prevent ecological disaster. In other words, we're ****ed. He predicts that by the end of the century, temperatures in temperate zones will have increased by 8 degrees, tropical zones by 5 degrees, and most of the planet will be covered by barren scrubland. Of course this sort of thing has happened before, and it took the planet around 100,000 years to recover,* but for the human race, or at least civilisation, it looks like the end is far closer than we think. Billions of people will die and the survivors will be a rabble ruled over by brutal warlords.

His advice? Start planning for the end times now. Governments should make plans to store food and supplies, and even write a "survivor's manual", written on and in the most durable substance that we can find, detailling the sort of information (the Earth goes round the sun, natural selection drives evolution etc.) that took us thousands of years to discover and accept but could be forgotten in a couple of generations without civilisation.

And all this just at the time in my life when I was seriously considering having children. Now I'm not so sure that I want my descendants to live through an environmental holocaust - assuming that they survive it at all, that is.

So, whaddya think? Most depressing bit of news ever, or what? Should we care that it's now more or less inevitable that we'll all perish as we make the planet uninhabitable? I'm sure those of us with religious tendencies will have faith that God will look after them or it'll only be sinners who die anyway (because they obviously deserve it), but I don't really have any such hope in supernatural solutions. Remember it's not that long ago that George Washington sent Lewis and Clark across the States to try and find living woolly mammoths because he couldn't conceive that a benevolent God would let any of his creatures go extinct

*Unless you happen to believe in intelligent design or whatever they call that crap these days in which case you can happily tell yourself it doesn't matter because the planet's only, what, 600 years old anyway...

Post by **Best First** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:08 pm

i'd say we try our best to sort it out. Unless, of course, it poses a threat to the economy, in which case we had better leave it, eh?

do you have a link to the article? I'd say some of its a bit hyped from what you are saying - i'm not planning on being that brutal.

In some ways it would be kind of cool to witness the end of the world. Beat that Grandad.

Metal Vendetta · Post by **Metal Vendetta** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:14 pm

The article is here:
http://news.independent.co.uk/environme ... 338878.ece
With Lovelock's piece here:
http://comment.independent.co.uk/commen ... 338830.ece
More here:
http://news.independent.co.uk/environme ... 338879.ece
Enjoy

Obfleur · Post by **Obfleur** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:32 pm

When the end of the world is upon us, is it better to live in this modern world where we know it's coming, and be all stressed out, paniced and what not.
Or is it better to live in the not-so-modern world (amazon people) and not know about it (this means that you just continue on with your life, until one day, BOOM, it's over).

Post by **Best First** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:38 pm

option b probably, although i think option b wouldn't have created the issue in the first place.

Obfleur · Post by **Obfleur** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:49 pm

Impactor returns 2.0 · Post by **Impactor returns 2.0** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 3:52 pm

in 100 years we might have the technolagy to reverse climate problems. or an alien could land here and gives us the tech to do so or God might intervene, actualy scratch the last one...
What im saying how does the advent of the march of human technolagy work its way into this prediction?

Post by **Best First** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 4:38 pm

the issue isn't the march of technology its more the way in which it is adminsitered.

i.e with **** all care for the environment.

Impactor returns 2.0 · Post by **Impactor returns 2.0** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 4:55 pm

but as man becomes better equiped we might be able to manipulate the weather to our advantage?

I understand that doesnt mean we should do F all, Im wondering does the prediction take into account that things do change?

Post by **Best First** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 4:59 pm

Impactor returns 2.0 wrote:but as man becomes better equiped we might be able to manipulate the weather to our advantage?

I understand that doesnt mean we should do F all, Im wondering does the prediction take into account that things do change?

he's stating what he thinks will happen if we continue in teh manner that we have.

the possibility we 'might' be able to address this through 'progress' in no way points to anything other than bloody well trtying everything else as well.

Optimus Prime Rib · Post by **Optimus Prime Rib** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:03 pm

I like how one guy states the obvious (were destroying our environment) and suddenly were acting all panicky about it. We all knew this was going on. Either that, or the tons of people standing outside papermills holding protest signs about destroying the environment are just mindless and stupid.. Oh Wait.. Those are posterboard signs arent they? Held up by wooden sticks.. Oh man.

Impactor returns 2.0 · Post by **Impactor returns 2.0** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:04 pm

If I was writting a prediction say 100 years ago (1906) im sure it would be very different as to the one id write now.
Whilst im not dimissing that we clearly poo on our planet, and that if we carry on in this fashion its going to get worse, I think its safe to assume that the human race changes alot in 100 years, and so do our resource needs.

So yes I agree if we carried on the way we are from today im sure we will screw things up but I feel that even in say 50 years im sure the way we act will be different.

I think hes probably bang on if we took today as an example, but I very much doubt today can be used as the yard stick for the next 100 years.

Metal Vendetta · Post by **Metal Vendetta** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:14 pm

Impactor returns 2.0 wrote:I think hes probably bang on if we took today as an example, but I very much doubt today can be used as the yard stick for the next 100 years.

Yet with China, India, Russia and the US all increasing their industrial capacity and showing no signs of slowing down, I don't hold out much hope that things will suddenly change.

Post by **Best First** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:15 pm

Impactor returns 2.0 wrote:If I was writting a prediction say 100 years ago (1906) im sure it would be very different as to the one id write now.
Whilst im not dimissing that we clearly poo on our planet, and that if we carry on in this fashion its going to get worse, I think its safe to assume that the human race changes alot in 100 years, and so do our resource needs.

So yes I agree if we carried on the way we are from today im sure we will screw things up but I feel that even in say 50 years im sure the way we act will be different.

I think hes probably bang on if we took today as an example, but I very much doubt today can be used as the yard stick for the next 100 years.

so... you are advocating what exactly?

Impactor returns 2.0 · Post by **Impactor returns 2.0** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 5:20 pm

That his prediction is correct if we took today as the yard stick example for the next 100 years. except its impposible to say what will happen over the next years in regards to how we treat the planet (not dimissing trends of course) and so I take what he says as a grim reminder of how dumb we all are but at the same time im not gonna prepare my kids to fight on wastelands as I dont think it will happen.

It wasnt to long ago London was covered in thick smog from the oil lamps to the point ppl were dying all the time, but we changed adapted evolved with technolagy and science.

BB Shockwave · Post by **BB Shockwave** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 8:28 pm

So... anyone who played Fallout 1 and 2 will have some advantage,,,

Everyone else, start playing it now!

Post by **Best First** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 9:10 pm

Impactor returns 2.0 wrote:I dont think it will happen.

this is exactly why we are ****ed IMO.

i thought you weren't a man of faith?

Impactor returns 2.0 · Post by **Impactor returns 2.0** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 10:19 pm

Hold on - Im saying I dont belive what I just read will happen.
Ill be clear, I do not belive that the earth, 100 years from now, will be a wasteland run by warlords etc... I feel there are to many factors to take into account.
Do you belive it will happen?

Like i said, if were to use today as the benchmark for the next 100 years I belive it would be.

Some have mentioned that burning fossil fuels, oil use in china and other places that will demand huge amounts will accelerate global warming, this is true if we had 100 years of Oil left, but we simply dont. if anything global warming will decrease as we simply dont have the reasources to use.

Im not in anyway saying we should just burn them and use them all up - im just pointing out that factors like ive listed above make the prediction seem unlikely to me.

Metal Vendetta · Post by **Metal Vendetta** » Mon Jan 16, 2006 11:41 pm

Impactor returns 2.0 wrote:Im not in anyway saying we should just burn them and use them all up - im just pointing out that factors like ive listed above make the prediction seem unlikely to me.

That's not what Lovelock is saying though - he says it's already too late and global warming is accelerating. The process has already started and that any changes we make (especially at the rate we seem to make them) will have little effect now.

saysadie · Post by **saysadie** » Tue Jan 17, 2006 1:20 am

Yep. I've long accepted that we've royally ****** ourselves over.

I'm just going to continue doing what I've been doing- I try to be environmentally conscious, am dead in a few decades anyway and really don't have any plans to raise a family.

The fact that humankind will eventually become extinct is something that has already been assumed. Lots of species have gone extinct, why should we be any different? Something else will pop up to replace us eventually if it hasn't already somewhere out there, right? Why be so shocked it may be sooner, rather than later?

Keep in mind though, that people have been saying these sorts of things for decades. And humans are [probably] the greatest form of "sentient" parasite this planet's seen yet.